Five financial model mistakes we see in every seed deck

We've reviewed hundreds of financial models at this point. Seed-stage companies make the same mistakes over and over — not because they're careless, but because nobody told them what investors actually expect from a model at this stage.

Here are the five we see most often.

1. Revenue projections that assume everything goes right

Your base case should not be your dream scenario. If every assumption has to land perfectly for the numbers to work, the model isn't useful — it's a wish list. Build a base case you'd bet your own money on. Then show the upside separately.

2. No hiring plan behind the expenses

A line that says "salaries" growing 40% per year tells investors nothing. They want to see which roles you're hiring, when, and at what cost. This is one of the easiest ways to show that you've thought seriously about execution.

3. Ignoring churn entirely

Especially common in SaaS models. Founders project new customers month over month but never subtract the ones who leave. Even at seed stage, you should have an assumption about retention. If you don't have real data yet, use a conservative estimate and say so.

4. Mixing up cash flow and revenue

Revenue recognition and actual cash hitting your account are different things. If your customers pay annually upfront, that's great for cash flow but it doesn't mean you earned twelve months of revenue in January. Get this wrong and your runway calculations will be off — sometimes dangerously so.

5. A three-year forecast with monthly granularity

Month-by-month projections are useful for the next 12–18 months. Beyond that, quarterly or annual is fine. Nobody believes your month 31 forecast anyway, and the false precision makes it harder to see the big picture.

What a good seed model looks like

Here's a side-by-side of what we typically see versus what actually works:

The goal isn't to impress anyone with complexity. It's to show that you understand your own business well enough to plan for it.